I must start with a fundamental law: as long as fossil fuels are the cheapest energy, they will continue to be burned. This law is as certain as the law of gravity. No “caps”, “goals” for future emissions, or other self-deceptions can alter this fact. Caps only alter who burns the fuel and the pace of burning – they will not leave fossil fuels in the ground, as science demands. Caps are also inherently disingenuous – a pretense that the price of fossil fuel energy does not need to steadily rise, an attempt to circumvent the “law of gravity”.
Fossil fuels are cheapest in part because they are subsidized, but mainly because they do not pay their costs to society. Enormous world-wide medical costs due to air and water pollution, primarily caused by fossil fuels, are borne by the public, not fossil fuel companies. Nor do they pay for environmental damage or the costs of climate change, which instead will be shouldered especially by our children and grandchildren.
These facts expose the crucial element for solution of the energy and climate problem. A steadily rising carbon fee must be collected from fossil fuel companies. All funds should go to the public on a per capita basis to allow lifestyle adjustments and spur clean energy innovations. As the fee rises, fossil fuels will become increasingly unprofitable and will be phased out, replaced by carbon-free energy and increased energy efficiency. This is the economically-efficient path to a clean energy future – the cure to fossil fuel addiction.
Wait a minute! If a carbon fee makes economic sense and saves the planet, why is the United States, for example, not following that path? Fossil fuel interests reign in Washington and other capitals. Big money forces legislatures to hatch ineffectual schemes such as “cap-andtrade- with-offsets”, a system designed by big banks and fossil fuel interests that assures continued fossil fuel addiction.
Is there any hope that China will take the game-changing first step by adopting a carbon tax? Why would they do so? Why would this be the harbinger of a global framework?
I believe that China has powerful reasons to place a rising fee on carbon: (1) China will suffer more than most nations from changing climate and rising sea level, (2) China has horrific air and water pollution from fossil fuels, (3) China wants to avoid the enormous costs and burdens that accompany fossil fuel addiction, (4) there is great economic advantage in having the leading low-carbon technologies.
All four reasons are old news. My optimism (Part 1) that China can, indeed must, lead the world toward a global solution is not based only on these reasons. It also is based on insight that emerged during the Beijing Forum, exposing a fundamental flaw in my prior reasoning about the framework needed to achieve an effective global agreement – as discussed below.
I attended conferences in Hong Kong and Beijing, losing track of the number of meetings and talks, expertly arranged by Christine Loh. [Christine, I was told by others, was a primary force in helping bring order to Hong Kong development, limiting expansion into the harbor.]
The physical development of Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai and other populous areas in China is awesome, even though big challenges remain, pollution not the least of them. However, what impressed me most was the focused rational approach to dealing with the challenges, epitomized by Dr. Jiang Kejun, the lead speaker in the session “Global Environmental Policies and National Strategies” at the Beijing Forum.
Jiang Kejun laid out sector-by-sector projections of transitions to low-carbon and no-carbon energies and improved energy efficiency that would allow CO2 emission growth to be slowed and then reversed over the next few decades. Technology development is supported, and, when lower carbon technology becomes available, efficiency standards are promptly ratcheted downward. Most encouragingly, there is recognition that this strategy requires a rising carbon price for most successful results. The Chinese authorities appear to grasp that rapid attainment of the tipping points at which clean energies quickly displace dirty energy requires an economic incentive.
One reason to believe this approach will work is the scale of manufacturing in China. The scale is so great that the unit price of new technologies can be brought down, putting China in a position to sell carbon-efficient technologies to the rest of the world. That is important, because, as Figure 2 reveals, emissions from other developing countries are increasing as fast as those of China. But those countries, too, have every reason to minimize fossil fuel addiction.
The Chinese approach stands in stark contrast to that in the United States. As described in “Storms of My Grandchildren“, my “A-Team” (student-teacher-researcher team) showed years ago (as did others) that existing technology would allow a 30 percent vehicle efficiency improvement, saving $100 billion per year in imported oil costs. Yet our automobile efficiency standards were stuck for decades. I testified in court on the side of states trying to force better standards, e.g., Vermont vs. Auto Manufacturers, while our federal government stood in court alongside the polluters.
We “won” the court case, yet appeals stretched the time of action for years. I came away feeling that not only is it nearly impossible to get effective legislation through Congress, but that the special interests can prevent implementation almost interminably. Democracy of the sort intended in 1776 probably could have dealt with climate change, but not the fossil-money-‘democracy’ that now rules the roost in Washington.
There was a flaw in my prior thinking that became clear to me during my visit to China. I had argued previously that global action to stem climate change required agreement between China and the United States for a rising carbon fee. That would work, but it is not realistic – such a treaty requires approval by the dysfunctional U.S. Congress.
However, there is a way around that, which becomes obvious with the realization that an initially modest carbon fee is in China’s own interest. After agreement with other nations, e.g., the European Union, China and these nations could impose rising internal carbon fees. Existing rules of the World Trade Organization would allow collection of a rising border duty on products from all nations that do not have an equivalent internal carbon fee or tax.
The United States then would be forced to make a choice. It could either address its fossil fuel addiction with a rising carbon fee and supportive national investment policies or it could accept continual descent into second-rate and third-rate economic well-being. The United States has great potential for innovation, but it will not be unleashed as long as fossil fuel interests have a stranglehold on U.S. energy policies.
By: Professor James Hansen of Columbia University
Source: eco-business.com ... read the full article
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