A recent analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests that the U.S. market for solar photovoltaic and solar thermal generation will grow annually by 42% to reach 44 GW by 2020, requiring $100 billion of investment.
"By the middle of this decade, the U.S. retail solar market will be driven by fundamental, unsubsidized competition, which should transform the U.S. into one of the world's most dynamic solar markets," says Milo Sjardin, Bloomberg New Energy Finance's U.S. head of research.
"The important thing right now is to ensure policy stability, to give investors confidence during this critical period," adds Michael Liebreich, CEO of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. "The U.S. solar industry will require private-sector investment of $100 billion during the next decade - any hint that the government's commitment to clean energy could waver, and investors will run for cover."
Bloomberg New Energy Finance is forecasting capacity from large-scale solar thermal projects to rise from 0.4 GW currently to 14 GW by 2020. For photovoltaics, the company anticipates a 34% annual growth rate to 30 GW by 2020.
SOURCE: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Thin-Film PV Materials To Reach $5.9B In 2016
Despite the end of the silicon shortage and ongoing economic woes, the thin-film PV (TFPV) materials markets will generate $5.9 billion in 2016 compared to $2.1 billion in 2011, according to a new report from NanoMarkets.
The report includes its latest projections on material sales for thin-film silicon (TF Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) PV. NanoMarkets believes that, despite its maturity, TF Si PV will retain its competitiveness as this technology shifts toward using tandem cells using microcrystalline silicon. Key beneficiaries of this shift will be silane suppliers. Revenues from TF Si PV absorber materials will reach approximately $975 million by 2016.
However, by 2016, the largest segment of the TFPV material sector will be CdTe absorber materials, which, by then, will reach $1.6 billion. This represents an important opportunity for suppliers of CdTe materials to qualify as a supplier to the dominant CdTe panel maker, First Solar, which is increasingly in need of more materials sources, the report says. The growing use of tellurium also presents an opportunity for companies in the copper- and lead-refining industries, because tellurium is primarily a byproduct of refining these ores.
Despite the disappointments of the past, NanoMarkets believes product and manufacturing announcements over the past year have begun to vindicate the CIGS story. Dow's CIGS-based building-integrated PV product and TSMC's entry into the CIGS area promise a better future for CIGS. As a result, absorber materials sold into this space are expected to reach approximately $610 million by 2016.
NanoMarkets also predicts success for CIGS electrodeposition, which the company says is well matched to improve the cost performance of CIGS in a low-demand economy.
SOURCE: NanoMarkets
The report includes its latest projections on material sales for thin-film silicon (TF Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) PV. NanoMarkets believes that, despite its maturity, TF Si PV will retain its competitiveness as this technology shifts toward using tandem cells using microcrystalline silicon. Key beneficiaries of this shift will be silane suppliers. Revenues from TF Si PV absorber materials will reach approximately $975 million by 2016.
However, by 2016, the largest segment of the TFPV material sector will be CdTe absorber materials, which, by then, will reach $1.6 billion. This represents an important opportunity for suppliers of CdTe materials to qualify as a supplier to the dominant CdTe panel maker, First Solar, which is increasingly in need of more materials sources, the report says. The growing use of tellurium also presents an opportunity for companies in the copper- and lead-refining industries, because tellurium is primarily a byproduct of refining these ores.
Despite the disappointments of the past, NanoMarkets believes product and manufacturing announcements over the past year have begun to vindicate the CIGS story. Dow's CIGS-based building-integrated PV product and TSMC's entry into the CIGS area promise a better future for CIGS. As a result, absorber materials sold into this space are expected to reach approximately $610 million by 2016.
NanoMarkets also predicts success for CIGS electrodeposition, which the company says is well matched to improve the cost performance of CIGS in a low-demand economy.
SOURCE: NanoMarkets
World's Largest Solar Powered Boat
A sleek outer space looking solar powered catamaran is heading for Miami.
Swiss engineer Raphael Domjan says the 102-foot-long Turanor PlanetSolar is the world's largest solar powered boat. The vessel docked in Miami this weekend.
Turanor's deck is covered in 5,700 square feet of photovoltaic panels of thin glass that charge a gigantic lithium ion battery. The vessel can last on battery for three to four days if there's no sun. Domjan is planning a eco-adventure around the world on the catamaran.
The Turanor costs about $20 million.
Source: Solar Knowledge
Swiss engineer Raphael Domjan says the 102-foot-long Turanor PlanetSolar is the world's largest solar powered boat. The vessel docked in Miami this weekend.
Turanor's deck is covered in 5,700 square feet of photovoltaic panels of thin glass that charge a gigantic lithium ion battery. The vessel can last on battery for three to four days if there's no sun. Domjan is planning a eco-adventure around the world on the catamaran.
The Turanor costs about $20 million.
Source: Solar Knowledge
IMS Research forecasts 75% of global PV production to take place in Asia by end of 2011
One of the biggest pressures that the solar module industry faces is the ability to produce a solar module at a lower cost. Due to this demand in pricing, IMS Research has concluded that over 70% of module production capacity is made in Asia as of 2010’s fourth quarter.
The trend to move production to Asia isn’t a passing one as IMS foresees that by the end of 2011, over 75% of the world’s PV production will take place in Asia.
IMS acknowledged that 2010 has been a good year for the module industry yielding strong demand, an increase in shipments and a curb in pricing demand. Conversely, as the industry prepares to enter 2011, IMS points to signs that the German market is dampening while PV suppliers throughout the industry turning their attention more frequently towards bringing down the cost of manufacturing modules.
As a result, suppliers are moving their production to Asia, where costs for producing modules bear a significantly lower cost. Using REC as an example, IMS highlighted that the company’s fully-automated Singapore-based wafer, cell and module production lines aim to make modules for €0.97 per watt by the end of 2011. Moreover, IMS cites Evergreen Solar who plans to produce modules at US$0.90 per watt at its Chinese facility by the end of 2012; a substantial change from its cost of producing the same modules at its US plant in 2010’s third quarter at US$1.88 per watt.
“It is essential that PV costs continue to decline in order for PV to become a more sustainable industry that is less reliant on subsidies, and seemingly inevitable that manufacturing will shift to Asia, much as it has done in almost every other high-volume electronics market.” commented PV Research Analyst, Sam Wilkinson (pictured). “Large Chinese manufacturers are currently leading the industry in crystalline PV module cost reduction and other Western suppliers are joining them, bymoving their own production to Asia,” Wilkinson concluded.
As a result, suppliers are moving their production to Asia, where costs for producing modules bear a significantly lower cost. Using REC as an example, IMS highlighted that the company’s fully-automated Singapore-based wafer, cell and module production lines aim to make modules for €0.97 per watt by the end of 2011. Moreover, IMS cites Evergreen Solar who plans to produce modules at US$0.90 per watt at its Chinese facility by the end of 2012; a substantial change from its cost of producing the same modules at its US plant in 2010’s third quarter at US$1.88 per watt.
“It is essential that PV costs continue to decline in order for PV to become a more sustainable industry that is less reliant on subsidies, and seemingly inevitable that manufacturing will shift to Asia, much as it has done in almost every other high-volume electronics market.” commented PV Research Analyst, Sam Wilkinson (pictured). “Large Chinese manufacturers are currently leading the industry in crystalline PV module cost reduction and other Western suppliers are joining them, bymoving their own production to Asia,” Wilkinson concluded.
Source: PV-Tech.org
Solar Inverter Shipments Hit Record Highs in Q3 2010
Solar inverter shipments grew by 50 per cent in the third quarter of 2010 to reach 7.3GW, a new record for the industry, according to latest figures.
But the analysis by IMS Research struck a warning note, judging the market already fully supplied.
‘Again we are referring to a record quarter for inverter suppliers with the previous record of 5GW of shipments in the second quarter of 2010 being beaten by almost 50 per cent in the third quarter,’ said Tom Haddon, solar analyst at IMS.
‘The last quarter, however, is likely to be much weaker, as Germany, the largest market, continues to slow. Additionally, significant inventory now exists in the supply chain and a sharp correction seems inevitable.’
While the majority of shipments were for installations in Germany, growth slowed substantially in that region and the biggest contributors to the market’s huge increase were Italy and Asia. Other European markets also fared well and have grown by more than 300 per cent year-on-year.
Europe, the Middle East and Africa accounted for around 80 per cent of inverter shipments in the third quarter of 2010, down from 90 per cent the previous quarter, partly driven by high growth of the Americas market which is estimated to have doubled in size from the same period last year. All regions recorded growth, generating more than $2bn in revenues for suppliers during the quarter.
For the second consecutive quarter, factory-gate inverter prices fell due to the continuing shift towards larger inverters, which have an inherently lower price per watt.
With such a strong quarter for the whole industry many firms have increased shipments but lost overall market share. SMA, which dominates the market, continued to lose further share in the third quarter, despite a record quarter and a big improvement in its supply problems.
Copyright © 2010 NewNet
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
NREL Validates Konkarka's 8.3% "Power Plastic" Efficiency Record
The cell was certified by the National Energy Renewable Laboratory (NREL) as a new world record efficiency for an organic photovoltaic solar cell.
Konarka believes the new record setting cell opens new large-scale commercial opportunities for its Power Plastic material.
“The progress Konarka has achieved this year with regard to solar cell efficiency is unprecedented, representing a significant milestone for the industry,” commented Howard Berke, chairman, CEO and co-founder of Konarka. “This unsurpassed NREL certification opens new doors for the commercial production of cost-effective, efficient electricity for numerous large scale applications.”
Just short of two years ago, Konarka had produced cells with 6% efficiency. The company is still developing a range of flexible PV substrates that target both BIPV and BAPV markets.
Source: PV Tech.org
Trina Solar Releases 3rd Quarter Results
Trina Solar (NYSE TSL) is up 1701% this year (through Dec. 1, 2010). They just released their third quarter results.
"We continue to see strong demand momentum into the fourth quarter and the outlook for 2011 is increasingly positive; we expect that demand for our products will outpace our planned capacity expansion in 2011,” noted Gao. “Our expansion will allow us to increase sales in high growth PV markets such as the United States and Japan, while expand our presence and sales in Australia and other emerging solar markets. In parallel, our continued investments in localizing customer service and increasing service levels allow us to target higher value end-segments and high profile projects and to further differentiate our product offerings from other brands. We expect continuous gain in market share linked to our sales strategy and our emphasis on quality in our existing and new PV products and solutions."
The PV manufacturer reported module shipments of approximately 291MW, exceeding previous guidance of 250MW to 260MW with Net revenues of US$508.3 million and a gross margin rate of 31.4%.
Jifan Gao, chairman and CEO of Trina Solar said that the outlook for 2011 was increasingly positive as demand would outpace Trina’s planned capacity expansions in 2011.
"We continue to see strong demand momentum into the fourth quarter and the outlook for 2011 is increasingly positive; we expect that demand for our products will outpace our planned capacity expansion in 2011,” noted Gao. “Our expansion will allow us to increase sales in high growth PV markets such as the United States and Japan, while expand our presence and sales in Australia and other emerging solar markets. In parallel, our continued investments in localizing customer service and increasing service levels allow us to target higher value end-segments and high profile projects and to further differentiate our product offerings from other brands. We expect continuous gain in market share linked to our sales strategy and our emphasis on quality in our existing and new PV products and solutions."
Trina Solar noted that its annualised in-house production capacity of ingots and wafers as well as PV cell and module production capacity is expected to reach approximately 1.2GW and 1.7GW, respectively.
Based on continued strong demand, Trina Solar expects 2010 module shipments to reach approximately 1GW, up from previous guidance of between 900MW and 930MW.
However, despite high factory utilisation rates and a virtual ‘sold-out’ situation in 2010, the PV manufacturer saw non-silicon manufacturing cost applicable to its in-house wafer production to module production of approximately US$0.73 per watt, compared to US$0.74 per watt in the previous quarter.
Based on continued strong demand, Trina Solar expects 2010 module shipments to reach approximately 1GW, up from previous guidance of between 900MW and 930MW.
However, despite high factory utilisation rates and a virtual ‘sold-out’ situation in 2010, the PV manufacturer saw non-silicon manufacturing cost applicable to its in-house wafer production to module production of approximately US$0.73 per watt, compared to US$0.74 per watt in the previous quarter.
Sources: Trina Solar + PV Tech.org
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)