The New York Times published a rundown today of the top ten states in installed solar power capacity. That California was number one was no surprise, but the other nine were interesting to see. Here's the full list:
1. California: 47 percent with 971 megawatts
2. New Jersey: 14 percent with 293 MW
3. Colorado: 5 percent with 108 MW
4. Arizona: 5 percent with 101 MW
5. Nevada: 5 percent with 97 MW
6. Florida: 4 percent with 73 MW
7. New York: 3 percent with 54 MW
8. Pennsylvania: 3 percent with 54 MW
9. New Mexico: 2 percent with 45 MW
10. North Carolina: 2 percent with 42 MW
New Jersey has made its way to second place with some major small-scale solar initiatives. Rooftops and utility poles across the state have gotten the solar treatment and all that distributed solar has added up to a nice chunk of MW.
Pennsylvania and North Carolina were interesting additions, as solar programs in other areas, like the Southwest, have gotten a bit more attention. But it is worth noting that there is over a 900 MW gap between California and North Carolina. California is really at the level I wish all states would strive for, and while 42 MW is nothing to sneeze at, that type of number making our top ten shows we have a much longer way to go overall.
via NY Times
Showing posts with label industry trends. Show all posts
Showing posts with label industry trends. Show all posts
Friday, May 6, 2011
Monday, May 2, 2011
Australia to Invest Big Money in Solar Projects over Next 10 Years
Australian policies to encourage the development of renewable energy projects will drive at least $36 billion of investment by 2020, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts.
About $28 billion will be spent to build large utility- scale power projects such as wind farms, while a further $8 billion will be invested by households and businesses in smaller rooftop solar systems, according to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance report issued today.
Australia has set a target of generating 20 percent of its electricity from renewable energy by 2020 and is proceeding with a $1.5 billion funding program to support solar projects. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has said the government wants to set a price on carbon emissions starting in July 2012 in preparation for a trading system to begin as early as 2015.
“Strong levels of investment will continue, thanks to the national targets and the rapidly falling costs of clean energy,” Seb Henbest, who leads Bloomberg New Energy Finance's Sydney-based research team, said in a statement.
BP Plc, AGL Energy Ltd. and CLP Holdings Ltd.'s unit TRUenergy Holdings Pty are vying for government solar grants to develop projects using photovoltaic panels to turn sunlight into power, while a joint proposal from Suntech Power Holdings Co. and Infigen Energy is another of the shortlisted ventures.
While renewable energy investment in Australia is expected to fall to $3 billion in 2011 from more than $4 billion in 2010, it will rise to $4 billion in 2012 and stay higher than that for most of the decade, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said.
The projected investment is equal to the $36 billion needed to build Australia's national broadband network, intended to extend fiber-optic cable to 93 per cent of the country's homes, it said.
Source: Bloomberg
About $28 billion will be spent to build large utility- scale power projects such as wind farms, while a further $8 billion will be invested by households and businesses in smaller rooftop solar systems, according to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance report issued today.
Australia has set a target of generating 20 percent of its electricity from renewable energy by 2020 and is proceeding with a $1.5 billion funding program to support solar projects. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has said the government wants to set a price on carbon emissions starting in July 2012 in preparation for a trading system to begin as early as 2015.
“Strong levels of investment will continue, thanks to the national targets and the rapidly falling costs of clean energy,” Seb Henbest, who leads Bloomberg New Energy Finance's Sydney-based research team, said in a statement.
BP Plc, AGL Energy Ltd. and CLP Holdings Ltd.'s unit TRUenergy Holdings Pty are vying for government solar grants to develop projects using photovoltaic panels to turn sunlight into power, while a joint proposal from Suntech Power Holdings Co. and Infigen Energy is another of the shortlisted ventures.
While renewable energy investment in Australia is expected to fall to $3 billion in 2011 from more than $4 billion in 2010, it will rise to $4 billion in 2012 and stay higher than that for most of the decade, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said.
The projected investment is equal to the $36 billion needed to build Australia's national broadband network, intended to extend fiber-optic cable to 93 per cent of the country's homes, it said.
Source: Bloomberg
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Solar leader sees bright future
Shi grew up in China but spent a decade in Australia pursuing his education and beginning his work in solar cell production. In 2000, he returned to his homeland and began setting up factories to take advantage of China’s low labor costs and other economy measures to produce solar panels at a lower cost than companies elsewhere could match. At the time, China had a negligible presence in the solar business, but now, thanks in large part to Shi’s pioneering work, it dominates the world’s solar industry.
Shi’s company, Suntech, is the clear leader. Except for one year during the economic downturn, the company’s output of solar panels has doubled annually, while production costs and sales prices continue to decline. Already, he said, for many locations (such as Italy) the panels his company produces can generate electricity at “grid parity,” meaning the cost is competitive with that from standard (primarily fossil-fuel) sources. Given present trends, the ever-falling prices should bring other locations, including Hawaii, California and Japan, to grid parity within the next five years, he said.
The incredible shrinking production cost
Shi, who has a doctorate in electrical engineering, described several technological approaches that he expects will help to drive up efficiency while lowering costs, including the incorporation of a layer of plasmonic nanostructures — which can help to distribute light so that more of it enters the solar cell and less gets scattered away — bonded onto the front of a silicon solar cell.
That is just one of many technologies being pursued by the company, which invests heavily in research and development and is exploring a variety of approaches to lowering costs, increasing the efficiency of the panels, and incorporating features that drastically lower the time needed for installation, which is a major part of overall system cost for the end users (whether individual homes or utility-scale solar farms).
The company is looking at ways to produce much narrower silver contacts on the solar cells’ front surface, which would increase efficiency by reducing shading (caused by barriers that keep sunlight from striking the surface of the cell). It is also working on “buried contact” cells, where the connections are under the silicon layer so they have no shading, and on ways of making thinner cells to reduce the cost of the silicon needed and the weight of the finished panels.
When Suntech started, the typical price for crystalline silicon solar cells was about $5 per watt, but Shi was able to produce them initially for less than $3. This year, the company has produced about 3 gigawatts’ (GW) worth of solar panels, and Shi said he expects to produce more than 5 GW next year. And thanks to stringent quality control, he said, the company is able to offer a 25-year warranty on the panels’ power output.
But that’s just the beginning, he stressed. “We’re not even a baby yet,” he said; solar technology today is “still an embryo.” For one thing, even as demand keeps growing, “solar is not ready yet” to meet that demand — “we don’t have the scale, we don’t have the supply chain to support” the growth that would otherwise be possible.
As a step toward what he sees as an electric power system that eventually will be dominated by solar, he suggests that hybrid systems — large solar installations paired with conventional fossil-fuel powerplants — could help to bridge the gap, providing steady power by switching to the fossil fuel whenever the sun doesn’t shine or the demand is too large.
Shi’s talk at MIT was sponsored by the MIT China Energy and Environment Research Group, the MIT Energy Initiative and the MIT Energy Club.
Source: MIT News
Thursday, December 2, 2010
U.S. Solar Market to Reach 44 GM by 2020
A recent analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests that the U.S. market for solar photovoltaic and solar thermal generation will grow annually by 42% to reach 44 GW by 2020, requiring $100 billion of investment.
"By the middle of this decade, the U.S. retail solar market will be driven by fundamental, unsubsidized competition, which should transform the U.S. into one of the world's most dynamic solar markets," says Milo Sjardin, Bloomberg New Energy Finance's U.S. head of research.
"The important thing right now is to ensure policy stability, to give investors confidence during this critical period," adds Michael Liebreich, CEO of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. "The U.S. solar industry will require private-sector investment of $100 billion during the next decade - any hint that the government's commitment to clean energy could waver, and investors will run for cover."
Bloomberg New Energy Finance is forecasting capacity from large-scale solar thermal projects to rise from 0.4 GW currently to 14 GW by 2020. For photovoltaics, the company anticipates a 34% annual growth rate to 30 GW by 2020.
SOURCE: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
"By the middle of this decade, the U.S. retail solar market will be driven by fundamental, unsubsidized competition, which should transform the U.S. into one of the world's most dynamic solar markets," says Milo Sjardin, Bloomberg New Energy Finance's U.S. head of research.
"The important thing right now is to ensure policy stability, to give investors confidence during this critical period," adds Michael Liebreich, CEO of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. "The U.S. solar industry will require private-sector investment of $100 billion during the next decade - any hint that the government's commitment to clean energy could waver, and investors will run for cover."
Bloomberg New Energy Finance is forecasting capacity from large-scale solar thermal projects to rise from 0.4 GW currently to 14 GW by 2020. For photovoltaics, the company anticipates a 34% annual growth rate to 30 GW by 2020.
SOURCE: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
IMS Research forecasts 75% of global PV production to take place in Asia by end of 2011
One of the biggest pressures that the solar module industry faces is the ability to produce a solar module at a lower cost. Due to this demand in pricing, IMS Research has concluded that over 70% of module production capacity is made in Asia as of 2010’s fourth quarter.
The trend to move production to Asia isn’t a passing one as IMS foresees that by the end of 2011, over 75% of the world’s PV production will take place in Asia.
IMS acknowledged that 2010 has been a good year for the module industry yielding strong demand, an increase in shipments and a curb in pricing demand. Conversely, as the industry prepares to enter 2011, IMS points to signs that the German market is dampening while PV suppliers throughout the industry turning their attention more frequently towards bringing down the cost of manufacturing modules.
As a result, suppliers are moving their production to Asia, where costs for producing modules bear a significantly lower cost. Using REC as an example, IMS highlighted that the company’s fully-automated Singapore-based wafer, cell and module production lines aim to make modules for €0.97 per watt by the end of 2011. Moreover, IMS cites Evergreen Solar who plans to produce modules at US$0.90 per watt at its Chinese facility by the end of 2012; a substantial change from its cost of producing the same modules at its US plant in 2010’s third quarter at US$1.88 per watt.
“It is essential that PV costs continue to decline in order for PV to become a more sustainable industry that is less reliant on subsidies, and seemingly inevitable that manufacturing will shift to Asia, much as it has done in almost every other high-volume electronics market.” commented PV Research Analyst, Sam Wilkinson (pictured). “Large Chinese manufacturers are currently leading the industry in crystalline PV module cost reduction and other Western suppliers are joining them, bymoving their own production to Asia,” Wilkinson concluded.
As a result, suppliers are moving their production to Asia, where costs for producing modules bear a significantly lower cost. Using REC as an example, IMS highlighted that the company’s fully-automated Singapore-based wafer, cell and module production lines aim to make modules for €0.97 per watt by the end of 2011. Moreover, IMS cites Evergreen Solar who plans to produce modules at US$0.90 per watt at its Chinese facility by the end of 2012; a substantial change from its cost of producing the same modules at its US plant in 2010’s third quarter at US$1.88 per watt.
“It is essential that PV costs continue to decline in order for PV to become a more sustainable industry that is less reliant on subsidies, and seemingly inevitable that manufacturing will shift to Asia, much as it has done in almost every other high-volume electronics market.” commented PV Research Analyst, Sam Wilkinson (pictured). “Large Chinese manufacturers are currently leading the industry in crystalline PV module cost reduction and other Western suppliers are joining them, bymoving their own production to Asia,” Wilkinson concluded.
Source: PV-Tech.org
Solar Inverter Shipments Hit Record Highs in Q3 2010
Solar inverter shipments grew by 50 per cent in the third quarter of 2010 to reach 7.3GW, a new record for the industry, according to latest figures.
But the analysis by IMS Research struck a warning note, judging the market already fully supplied.
‘Again we are referring to a record quarter for inverter suppliers with the previous record of 5GW of shipments in the second quarter of 2010 being beaten by almost 50 per cent in the third quarter,’ said Tom Haddon, solar analyst at IMS.
‘The last quarter, however, is likely to be much weaker, as Germany, the largest market, continues to slow. Additionally, significant inventory now exists in the supply chain and a sharp correction seems inevitable.’
While the majority of shipments were for installations in Germany, growth slowed substantially in that region and the biggest contributors to the market’s huge increase were Italy and Asia. Other European markets also fared well and have grown by more than 300 per cent year-on-year.
Europe, the Middle East and Africa accounted for around 80 per cent of inverter shipments in the third quarter of 2010, down from 90 per cent the previous quarter, partly driven by high growth of the Americas market which is estimated to have doubled in size from the same period last year. All regions recorded growth, generating more than $2bn in revenues for suppliers during the quarter.
For the second consecutive quarter, factory-gate inverter prices fell due to the continuing shift towards larger inverters, which have an inherently lower price per watt.
With such a strong quarter for the whole industry many firms have increased shipments but lost overall market share. SMA, which dominates the market, continued to lose further share in the third quarter, despite a record quarter and a big improvement in its supply problems.
Copyright © 2010 NewNet
Saturday, November 27, 2010
PV Manufacturing Equipment Spending Reaches Record Levels in 2010 as c-Si and Thin-Film Fabs Enter New Investment Cycle Phases
A diverse range of competing technologies and manufacturing methods has resulted in an increasingly fragmented solar PV manufacturing landscape: one that is resulting in record equipment spending levels as strong investment within PV capacity continues across both c-Si and thin-film technologies.
Capacity expansion by c-Si cell manufacturers has created headline news during 2010 with 100MW+ expansion phases being announced with increasing regularity from within China and Taiwan. Moreover, the ability of c-Si cell makers to ramp up capacity within 9 months will drive the market-share of c-Si cells to 90% during 2010.
However, this by no means detracts from the investment and equipment spending within the thin-film segment.
Despite a reduction in thin-film's share of the global PV market from 2009 to 2010, thin film manufacturing is in fact entering a new cycle of investment. This has emerged as part of new research coverage by Solarbuzz on PV cell manufacturing equipment line and tool spend.
Source: Solarbuzz - Read the full article here.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Solar Cell Manufacturing Trends
The following are trends and developments now playing out in a big way as the solar industry moves out of its juvenile stage. These will give us important clues as to the success factors for the future:
1. The silicon solar cell manufacturing industry is rapidly moving to lower cost countries such as China. This is actually a bit of a surprise to me as the industry is still dependent on government subsidies and I would have thought that the politicians would insist on more local production. To be clear, there will be plenty of local production as well, but the biggest production volumes will take place in lower cost countries.
2. The cost of materials and equipment is dropping fast.
3. The prices of solar cells and panels are coming down quickly.
4. The volume of solar cells as panels is increasing dramatically.
5. Competition among manufacturers will continue to intensify.
6. Demand is volatile. (This is particularly true for the solar industry, until the price becomes competitive with coal, as government subsidies are subject to change along with general economical dynamics.)
7. Production equipment is becoming steadily better and cheaper.
8. Material science is improving significantly.
9. Production and process expertise is improving very quickly.
I believe that the improvements in production and process expertise will contribute to helping the industry meet parity with coal quicker than otherwise expected. Process improvement leads to higher cell efficiency, which in turn helps drive down the cost per kWh.
“I believe that the improvements in production and process expertise will contribute to helping the industry meet parity with coal quicker than otherwise expected.”
Currently many production lines are purchased as complete lines, if not complete factories. A team of experts will commission the lines, enable them to achieve a certain level of performance and then basically say, “Don’t touch!” Even for the cell manufacturers that do purchase individual equipment and commission the lines themselves, there is currently a relatively limited understanding of the process capabilities. This is about to change, and the material suppliers and equipment vendors will contribute strongly to such process improvement.
Let’s use the metallization (firing) process for silicon solar cells as an example. The wafer’s thermal profile (time vs. temperature) has a significant impact on cell efficiency. The “sweet spot” of this thermal process depends on numerous variables such as the properties of the wafer, processes upstream of the firing furnace, properties of the firing material, the furnace and more. Furthermore, the thermal process is dynamic, meaning that over days and weeks, it drifts as the furnace lamps age, preventive maintenance introduces changes, wear and tear in the furnace, the wafer characteristics vary, etc.
Developing and maintaining an optimized thermal process will lead to higher cell efficiency. In a research project conducted by Heraeus, the cell efficiency increased by an incredible 0.51% simply by identifying the optimal wafer profile. Other case studies with actual manufacturers report 0.15% efficiency increases through thermal process optimization.
Because there are tens of millions of possible furnace setups (zone temperatures and conveyor speed), the process development will identify the appropriate process window (range of optimal profiles) and corresponding furnace setpoints. Once the process window is defined, it is a simple matter of transferring the identical process to all the production lines regardless of equipment age or brand name. Each furnace may have a different setup, but they all yield the same optimal profile on the wafers. Additionally, it is quick to adjust the process back into its “sweet spot” when it drifts. It needs to be quick as throughput is paramount to the profitability of the production lines. Actually, the process optimization does include optimizing the furnace throughput. This will, however, only lead to a real throughput gain when the furnace is the bottleneck in the production line.
”Since the production cost has not changed, virtually all of this revenue growth flows to the bottom line.”
The semiconductor manufacturing industry saw a tremendous increase in yield when the industry started maturing. To a large degree, it achieved this through better process control and improved production equipment and material. As the silicon solar cell manufacturing industry matures beyond its juvenile stage, it finds itself on the threshold of a similar development. It will move at warp speed because of the tremendous profit potential that will be unleashed. A leading furnace manufacturer recently calculated that increasing the cell efficiency by 0.10% for a modern 25 MW line would increase the revenue by more than $1/4 million per line per year. Since the production cost has not changed, virtually all of this revenue growth flows to the bottom line. This baby is growing up fast!
Source: Solar Novus Today by Bjorn Dahle To read more about the author click here
1. The silicon solar cell manufacturing industry is rapidly moving to lower cost countries such as China. This is actually a bit of a surprise to me as the industry is still dependent on government subsidies and I would have thought that the politicians would insist on more local production. To be clear, there will be plenty of local production as well, but the biggest production volumes will take place in lower cost countries.
2. The cost of materials and equipment is dropping fast.
3. The prices of solar cells and panels are coming down quickly.
4. The volume of solar cells as panels is increasing dramatically.
5. Competition among manufacturers will continue to intensify.
6. Demand is volatile. (This is particularly true for the solar industry, until the price becomes competitive with coal, as government subsidies are subject to change along with general economical dynamics.)
7. Production equipment is becoming steadily better and cheaper.
8. Material science is improving significantly.
9. Production and process expertise is improving very quickly.
I believe that the improvements in production and process expertise will contribute to helping the industry meet parity with coal quicker than otherwise expected. Process improvement leads to higher cell efficiency, which in turn helps drive down the cost per kWh.
“I believe that the improvements in production and process expertise will contribute to helping the industry meet parity with coal quicker than otherwise expected.”
Currently many production lines are purchased as complete lines, if not complete factories. A team of experts will commission the lines, enable them to achieve a certain level of performance and then basically say, “Don’t touch!” Even for the cell manufacturers that do purchase individual equipment and commission the lines themselves, there is currently a relatively limited understanding of the process capabilities. This is about to change, and the material suppliers and equipment vendors will contribute strongly to such process improvement.
Let’s use the metallization (firing) process for silicon solar cells as an example. The wafer’s thermal profile (time vs. temperature) has a significant impact on cell efficiency. The “sweet spot” of this thermal process depends on numerous variables such as the properties of the wafer, processes upstream of the firing furnace, properties of the firing material, the furnace and more. Furthermore, the thermal process is dynamic, meaning that over days and weeks, it drifts as the furnace lamps age, preventive maintenance introduces changes, wear and tear in the furnace, the wafer characteristics vary, etc.
Developing and maintaining an optimized thermal process will lead to higher cell efficiency. In a research project conducted by Heraeus, the cell efficiency increased by an incredible 0.51% simply by identifying the optimal wafer profile. Other case studies with actual manufacturers report 0.15% efficiency increases through thermal process optimization.
Because there are tens of millions of possible furnace setups (zone temperatures and conveyor speed), the process development will identify the appropriate process window (range of optimal profiles) and corresponding furnace setpoints. Once the process window is defined, it is a simple matter of transferring the identical process to all the production lines regardless of equipment age or brand name. Each furnace may have a different setup, but they all yield the same optimal profile on the wafers. Additionally, it is quick to adjust the process back into its “sweet spot” when it drifts. It needs to be quick as throughput is paramount to the profitability of the production lines. Actually, the process optimization does include optimizing the furnace throughput. This will, however, only lead to a real throughput gain when the furnace is the bottleneck in the production line.
”Since the production cost has not changed, virtually all of this revenue growth flows to the bottom line.”
The semiconductor manufacturing industry saw a tremendous increase in yield when the industry started maturing. To a large degree, it achieved this through better process control and improved production equipment and material. As the silicon solar cell manufacturing industry matures beyond its juvenile stage, it finds itself on the threshold of a similar development. It will move at warp speed because of the tremendous profit potential that will be unleashed. A leading furnace manufacturer recently calculated that increasing the cell efficiency by 0.10% for a modern 25 MW line would increase the revenue by more than $1/4 million per line per year. Since the production cost has not changed, virtually all of this revenue growth flows to the bottom line. This baby is growing up fast!
Source: Solar Novus Today by Bjorn Dahle To read more about the author click here
Monday, July 19, 2010
2010 to 2012 - Will See Major Changes in European PV Marketplace
The period from 2010 to 2012 is shaping up to be one of significant transformation for the European photovoltaic industry as it confronts regulatory incentive revisions, expanding market development opportunities and scaling competition from better financed and more robust power players, according to a new report from IHS Emerging Energy Research.
Europe PV markets are forecasted to add as much as 15.5 GW from 2010 to 2012 at an average of 5 GW per year. In the longer term, the PV sector in Europe is expected to maintain its growth trajectory from an expected 6.3 GW in 2010 toward 101 GW of installed capacity by 2025.
"In domino-like fashion, Europe's governments are revising their feed-in-tariff (FIT) schemes and permitting procedures in 2010 to keep pace with PV's rapid technology and cost advances," states IHS Research Director Reese Tisdale, one of the study's authors. "Feed-in tariffs have been instrumental in getting the European PV sector off the ground to date. These schemes are evolving rapidly in their designs to shape both the size and content of the market going forward."
Considered the epicenter of the global PV industry, the German PV market faces significant changes in the coming months due to proposed revisions to FITs expected to be enacted by the end of 2010, the report adds. As a result, German PV development is surging ahead of the proposed tariff reductions.
While Germany is among the most cost-competitive markets in Europe, reduced FIT rates will force players to further reduce system costs. Other markets, such as Italy, Spain and the Czech Republic, are poised to follow suit with expansive tariff revisions planned for this year.
Despite tariff revisions, Germany will continue to dominate global PV build-out, and continued development in Italy, France and Belgium also will be pivotal in driving the industry forward through scale, technology improvements and deeper experience for developers, Tisdale says.
"Europe is no longer a one-market PV industry," Tisdale explains. "With development focused almost entirely on Germany several years ago, the European PV market has now diversified to five or six active countries – ultimately, to stabilize the market and dampen risk."
Scaling PV activity in European markets outside of Germany has propelled a new group of utilities and power players into the industry forefront. Leading utilities and renewable players Electricite de France and Enel are at the forefront of large-scale PV deployment, particularly in France and Italy, leveraging their renewables success and experience to position them for broader international competition.
As competition increases in the downstream development segment, a growing number of international suppliers are challenging the more entrenched European companies for market share. Leading this charge has been the rising presence of lower-cost Asian manufacturers.
Furthermore, the recent oversupply of the global PV module market, technology and manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale has led to a dramatic reduction in solar PV system costs in 2009 and 2010. Adding to this positive cost trend, the increased positions of larger industrial players such as Siemens, ABB and GE are expected to have an additional impact on the PV sector, according to the report.
"Over the past 24 months, the makeup of the PV market has shifted dramatically with the growing presence of Asian suppliers squeezing traditional European suppliers," notes Tisdale. "At the heart of this change are Chinese companies - led by Suntech, Yingli, Trina, SolarFun and Canadian Solar - who are gaining market share through low-cost modules."
Through the first quarter this year, eight of Europe's top 15 module suppliers in Europe are Asia-based - highlighting a shift toward a more global supply chain from the more entrenched German suppliers that have been so successful in the past, according to the study.
SOURCE: IHS
Europe PV markets are forecasted to add as much as 15.5 GW from 2010 to 2012 at an average of 5 GW per year. In the longer term, the PV sector in Europe is expected to maintain its growth trajectory from an expected 6.3 GW in 2010 toward 101 GW of installed capacity by 2025.
"In domino-like fashion, Europe's governments are revising their feed-in-tariff (FIT) schemes and permitting procedures in 2010 to keep pace with PV's rapid technology and cost advances," states IHS Research Director Reese Tisdale, one of the study's authors. "Feed-in tariffs have been instrumental in getting the European PV sector off the ground to date. These schemes are evolving rapidly in their designs to shape both the size and content of the market going forward."
Considered the epicenter of the global PV industry, the German PV market faces significant changes in the coming months due to proposed revisions to FITs expected to be enacted by the end of 2010, the report adds. As a result, German PV development is surging ahead of the proposed tariff reductions.
While Germany is among the most cost-competitive markets in Europe, reduced FIT rates will force players to further reduce system costs. Other markets, such as Italy, Spain and the Czech Republic, are poised to follow suit with expansive tariff revisions planned for this year.
Despite tariff revisions, Germany will continue to dominate global PV build-out, and continued development in Italy, France and Belgium also will be pivotal in driving the industry forward through scale, technology improvements and deeper experience for developers, Tisdale says.
"Europe is no longer a one-market PV industry," Tisdale explains. "With development focused almost entirely on Germany several years ago, the European PV market has now diversified to five or six active countries – ultimately, to stabilize the market and dampen risk."
Scaling PV activity in European markets outside of Germany has propelled a new group of utilities and power players into the industry forefront. Leading utilities and renewable players Electricite de France and Enel are at the forefront of large-scale PV deployment, particularly in France and Italy, leveraging their renewables success and experience to position them for broader international competition.
As competition increases in the downstream development segment, a growing number of international suppliers are challenging the more entrenched European companies for market share. Leading this charge has been the rising presence of lower-cost Asian manufacturers.
Furthermore, the recent oversupply of the global PV module market, technology and manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale has led to a dramatic reduction in solar PV system costs in 2009 and 2010. Adding to this positive cost trend, the increased positions of larger industrial players such as Siemens, ABB and GE are expected to have an additional impact on the PV sector, according to the report.
"Over the past 24 months, the makeup of the PV market has shifted dramatically with the growing presence of Asian suppliers squeezing traditional European suppliers," notes Tisdale. "At the heart of this change are Chinese companies - led by Suntech, Yingli, Trina, SolarFun and Canadian Solar - who are gaining market share through low-cost modules."
Through the first quarter this year, eight of Europe's top 15 module suppliers in Europe are Asia-based - highlighting a shift toward a more global supply chain from the more entrenched German suppliers that have been so successful in the past, according to the study.
SOURCE: IHS
Friday, July 9, 2010
The US Commits $2 Billion to Solar - China Commits $17 Billion
A lot was made of President Obama's decision to provide $2 billion to 2 US Solar Companies -- but this pales in significance when compared with China's decision to commit $17 billion in loan guarantees to 3 Chinese Solar Companies - so don't be surprised as Chinese companies continually increase market share, and US and European companies lose out. Here are the details:
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- China may double the world’s capacity for making solar panels by loaning Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. 36 billion yuan ($5.3 billion) to expand production, a Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst said.
The funds from the state-run China Development Bank Corp. follow an agreement to lend as much as 50 billion yuan to Suntech Power Holdings Co. in April. Some 30 billion yuan was also loaned to Trina Solar Ltd. by the bank in the same month, according to New Energy Finance. The three New York-traded companies are China’s biggest solar firms by market value.
“The loans are enough to increase the world’s solar wafer and cell capacity by 100 percent,” said Jenny Chase, head of solar-energy analysis for New Energy Finance in London. “It will allow the Chinese companies to deliver unprecedented economies of scale.”
The money will allow China to strengthen its position as the world’s largest maker of solar panels used to generate electricity from the sun’s rays. Yingli and its Chinese competitors shipped 43 percent of the world’s solar panels last year, according to the London-based research group owned by Bloomberg LP.
Yingli will use the funds to finance both domestic development and boost its overseas business, the Baoding-based company said in a statement on its website. The company didn’t provide further details or disclose terms of the loan.
China Development Bank also extended an eight-year loan of $70 million to Yingli in December 2008 to fund expansion. The company said in a separate statement it has started production on a solar panel factory able to make 400 megawatts of generation capacity a year.
Capacity Expansion
Yingli expects its newest production lines to reach full capacity by the end of the third quarter, raising its total output capacity to 1 gigawatt. The China Development Bank loan may be enough to raise Yingli’s production capacity to as much as 5 gigawatts, Chase said.
The 50 billion yuan loan agreement with Suntech may be used to help expand output capacity, said spokesman Rory Macpherson.
“The strategic agreement signifies China Development Bank’s confidence in the ongoing growth of Suntech and the solar industry,” he said. “The use of the funds was not specified though could potentially be used for capacity expansion.”
Authors Note: An important caveat in the Chinese solar company loan deals is that these are agreements, but the actual money has not yet been loaned.
Monday, July 5, 2010
US Solar Industry on Track to Install 10 Gigawatts of Solar Annually by 2015
Rhone Resch, President and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), has recently released the following statement after announcing an industry-wide goal of installing 10 gigawatts of solar capacity annually by 2015. Resch made the announcement during a presentation at the 35th IEEE Photovoltaics Specialist Conference in Honolulu, Hawaii:
“Over the last few months, we have seen disaster after disaster caused by the fossil fuel industries and Americans are calling for a new direction for our energy future. And in communities across America, people are asking for an energy source that is clean, reliable, safe and creates economic opportunity. That energy source is solar.
“Even during the recession, the solar industry grew by 37 percent in 2009 and created 17,000 new American jobs. We are confident that we can reach 10 gigawatts of new installations annually by 2015, which will power two million households with clean, safe solar energy and support 440,000 domestic jobs. As the U.S. rapidly becomes the largest solar market in the world, the solar industry will help usher in a new era of clean, reliable power that will be the backbone of America’s economy.
“The leaders of the solar industry have set this target to show Americans that solar can and will become the nation’s largest source of new electricity generation by 2013. We are already cost competitive with fossil fuels, and by 2015 we expect solar energy to be the lowest cost source of retail electricity in all fifty states. But to reach our goal, we need to ensure that effective policy mechanisms are in place to give consumers the choice to go solar – a choice more than 90 percent of Americans support.
“The solar energy industry – invented and commercialized in the U.S. – is the solution for our country’s addiction to fossil fuels. It’s time we get this country moving in the right direction."
Source: Renewable Energy sources
“Over the last few months, we have seen disaster after disaster caused by the fossil fuel industries and Americans are calling for a new direction for our energy future. And in communities across America, people are asking for an energy source that is clean, reliable, safe and creates economic opportunity. That energy source is solar.
“Even during the recession, the solar industry grew by 37 percent in 2009 and created 17,000 new American jobs. We are confident that we can reach 10 gigawatts of new installations annually by 2015, which will power two million households with clean, safe solar energy and support 440,000 domestic jobs. As the U.S. rapidly becomes the largest solar market in the world, the solar industry will help usher in a new era of clean, reliable power that will be the backbone of America’s economy.
“The leaders of the solar industry have set this target to show Americans that solar can and will become the nation’s largest source of new electricity generation by 2013. We are already cost competitive with fossil fuels, and by 2015 we expect solar energy to be the lowest cost source of retail electricity in all fifty states. But to reach our goal, we need to ensure that effective policy mechanisms are in place to give consumers the choice to go solar – a choice more than 90 percent of Americans support.
“The solar energy industry – invented and commercialized in the U.S. – is the solution for our country’s addiction to fossil fuels. It’s time we get this country moving in the right direction."
Source: Renewable Energy sources
Friday, July 2, 2010
Solar PV Installation to hit 17 GW in 2011, Research says
Global solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are forecast to reach 13GW by the end of this year and 17GW by 2011 on production growth and declining prices, a research paper shows.
The Goldman Sachs Global Clean Energy team bases its installation forecast on supply forecast of 20GW and 28GW in 2010 and 2011 respectively, and a downside risk in 2012 of 18-22GW.
Supply is likely to come from lower cost producers such as thin-film makers and Chinese crystalline module makers, the research paper says.
Supply is likely to come from lower cost producers such as thin-film makers and Chinese crystalline module makers, the research paper says.
“We think demand may arise where government mandates for increased renewable energy remain strong, finance is readily available, and where domestic and utility scale demand are expected to rise,” it says.
Germany “should remain the largest and most important solar market globally for the next two years.”
PV installation in Germany is predicted at 6.5GW and 7.5GW in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The German market’s feed-in-tariff (FIT) will likely be cut given the lower trend in ASPs by 15% and 12% in the second-half of 2010 and full year 2011 respectively, for European module prices.
PV installation in Germany is predicted at 6.5GW and 7.5GW in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The German market’s feed-in-tariff (FIT) will likely be cut given the lower trend in ASPs by 15% and 12% in the second-half of 2010 and full year 2011 respectively, for European module prices.
The research also believes that both Chinese crystalline module makers and thin-film makers will continue to gain market share due to their 30% lower cost advantage over European and Japanese manufacturers.
“This should encourage more installations so as to optimise production capacity and return on capital,” the paper says.
“We expect the ASPs of Chinese solar modules to fall by 27% and 15% in 2010 and 2011, in line with other regional players.”
Current cost reduction targets also suggest that cost parity between solar energy and conventional energy is within reach between 2012 and 2014, depending on the market.
Italy Solar Tariff Cuts Not as Bad as Feared
The latest important European solar market to debut a plan for solar feed-in tariff cuts is Italy, and Italy's plan is different in important respects from other notable feed-in tariff decline policies.
Italy is proposing a cumulative feed-in tariff decline of 18% in 2011, but the FIT decline will be spread out across four-month periods, with 6% FIT declines in each one. Italy has been expected to implement a feed-in tariff decline at the beginning of 2011, and so, the fact that it's now moving ahead is no surprise to solar. The reduction in solar module pricing has dictated a cut in Italy's FIT scheme. There is little doubt that all the solar companies are racing to make Italy a huge market once Germany's FITs decline. Italy is already the second largest market in Europe.
Earlier this year, in a conference call hosted by Credit Suisse, Italian solar company Kerself indicated that it expected FIT cuts of 15% to 28%.
Of course, it's important to remember that at this stage the Italian government is merely proposing the plan for an 18% feed-in tariff cut spread throughout the year. It's a long road to implementing the policy. Take Germany, where FIT reductions that have been debated throughout 2010 are supposed to go into effect in a week, and yet, the German upper and lower houses of parliament still have not come to agreement on the plan.
Source: The Street
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Top 10 Solar PV Manufacturers for Q1 of 2010
Despite seeing a slight decline in module shipments, CdTe giant First Solar still led the market in 1Q10, according to calculations from IMS Research.
Overall 1Q10 was another record quarter for PV modules, with a 3% increase from the previous quarter, and a fourth consecutive Q/Q increase; look for another record in 2Q10 as most suppliers are still at full utilization of ever-expanding production capacity, the analyst firm notes.
The top module suppliers have a distinctively Far East flavor, with five of the top seven firms in China. Trina shipped more modules than Yingli Solar (a first). Yingli did manage to enjoy higher ASPs after a year of declines, and 33% gross margins, though that ASP growth (9% vs. 4Q) was in Euros, the destination for most of its modules -- and the Euro devaluation translated to only a 2% increase in terms of local Renminbi currency.
Overall 1Q10 was another record quarter for PV modules, with a 3% increase from the previous quarter, and a fourth consecutive Q/Q increase; look for another record in 2Q10 as most suppliers are still at full utilization of ever-expanding production capacity, the analyst firm notes.
The top module suppliers have a distinctively Far East flavor, with five of the top seven firms in China. Trina shipped more modules than Yingli Solar (a first). Yingli did manage to enjoy higher ASPs after a year of declines, and 33% gross margins, though that ASP growth (9% vs. 4Q) was in Euros, the destination for most of its modules -- and the Euro devaluation translated to only a 2% increase in terms of local Renminbi currency.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Four Key Industry Trends
Stabilizing prices, strong European demand, ongoing shortages of critical components, and finally some green-lit funding were key messages coming out of last week's Intersolar conference in Munich, according to Gartner's James Hines.
In a research note, he lists the four main points:
Prices stable, modest increases possible. Module prices are in the ~$1.70/W range. Chinese manufacturers can't cut prices because of still-low Euro valuations, and tight supply is underpinning pricing. There's some talk among manufacturers about raising prices, with module ASPs likely rising ~5% in 2H10.
Strong PV demand in Europe. For all the hand-wringing over its FiT plans, Germany will likely see 7GW this year, and Italy and the Czech Republics are also hot markets with possibly ≥1GW each by year's end. Greece's financial crisis seems to have had "little direct impact on PV demand," since the bulk of project financing is foreign-based, and incentives are (for the time being) intact.
PV inverters are still scarce. Inverter manufacturers are unable to meet demand -- to the point of being apologetic about it -- due to a lack of components they need (e.g. semiconductor devices, capacitors, and resistors). And there seems to be no resolution on the horizon. "Inverter availability might prove to be the limiting factor for the PV market in 2010," Hines writes.
Project financing is back. Among the PV industry's woes in 2009 was that financial supporters for PV projects promptly shut off their spigots. But this now appears to be a thing of the past -- project financing "appears to be largely resolved in European PV markets," Hines says. And investors are "back to the table" in the US as well, as credit markets recover and visibility improves for domestic renewable energy programs in the stimulus package.
In a research note, he lists the four main points:
Prices stable, modest increases possible. Module prices are in the ~$1.70/W range. Chinese manufacturers can't cut prices because of still-low Euro valuations, and tight supply is underpinning pricing. There's some talk among manufacturers about raising prices, with module ASPs likely rising ~5% in 2H10.
Strong PV demand in Europe. For all the hand-wringing over its FiT plans, Germany will likely see 7GW this year, and Italy and the Czech Republics are also hot markets with possibly ≥1GW each by year's end. Greece's financial crisis seems to have had "little direct impact on PV demand," since the bulk of project financing is foreign-based, and incentives are (for the time being) intact.
PV inverters are still scarce. Inverter manufacturers are unable to meet demand -- to the point of being apologetic about it -- due to a lack of components they need (e.g. semiconductor devices, capacitors, and resistors). And there seems to be no resolution on the horizon. "Inverter availability might prove to be the limiting factor for the PV market in 2010," Hines writes.
Project financing is back. Among the PV industry's woes in 2009 was that financial supporters for PV projects promptly shut off their spigots. But this now appears to be a thing of the past -- project financing "appears to be largely resolved in European PV markets," Hines says. And investors are "back to the table" in the US as well, as credit markets recover and visibility improves for domestic renewable energy programs in the stimulus package.
China PV Manufacturer's See Slowing Growth Rate
Recent revenue and shipment announcements by some of China's major PV makers suggest that growth for end-market demand is slowing.
With the exception of Yingli (primarily affected by the depreciation of the Euro vs. Yuan), the major Chinese PV players showed slowing growth vs. previous quarters -- and their growth in 1Q10 was mainly due to increased demand in Europe to get new PV systems installed ahead of Germany's upcoming changes to its feed-in tariff.
With the exception of Yingli (primarily affected by the depreciation of the Euro vs. Yuan), the major Chinese PV players showed slowing growth vs. previous quarters -- and their growth in 1Q10 was mainly due to increased demand in Europe to get new PV systems installed ahead of Germany's upcoming changes to its feed-in tariff.
Coupled with the euro volatility, this could mean a weaker outlook for installations through this year and maybe 2011, and will likely affect demand since all these suppliers are significantly exposed to European markets. Continued financial weakness in Europe (Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy), could lead to a roll back in solar incentives, which could affect the PV market for years.
The currency valuations also could spell cost problems for Chinese suppliers, since they report costs in dollars but sales in Euros -- this squeezes gross margins, and narrows the cost-advantage gap between them and European companies (e.g. REC, SolarWorld), Koh writes.
Source: Electro IQ Read the full article here.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
European PV Market to Change Significantly over Next 3 Years
The News: FIT rates in Europe are being reduced over next few years - as EU countries plan to follow the lead of Germany to reduce incentives.
My View: You can expect the following trends to emerge:
1. Chinese companies to get a bigger share of the market - as developers shop for lower prices to keep investor yields attractive at the lower FIT rates
2. Big power companies (e.g., ENEL in Italy, and Electricite' de France (EDF) will expand large scale projects - pushing prices down further).
3. Big name companies - GE, Siemens, ABB will be active in the big ground-based project development.
Growth will remain strong - but market share will shift toward Asian suppliers.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Solar Industry To Hit US $77B in 2015
Boston, United States
As the books close on what was a turbulent 2009 for the solar industry, Lux Research said that the solar market will soon see the lopsided supply and demand that characterized much of the last year return to equilibrium. According to the new report Solar's Shakeout: Europe Loses Leadership as China Rises," strong demand growth in Asia and the U.S. will push the market to 9.3 GW in 2010, hitting a dollar value of US $39 billion.
Building from there, continuing price reductions for all types of solar technology are expected to open new markets and help the solar industry reach $77 billion in revenue and 26.4 GW in capacity by 2015.
A large portion of the growth is expected to come from China, which in the last few years has become large manufacturer of solar modules and materials, but not yet a large buyer of them. Lux said it expects China to be the world's largest solar market in 2015.
The report underscores, however, that the renewed balance between supply and demand will arrive only after a wave of company failures and lower utilization rates.
Lux analyzes economic competitiveness and other drivers for the industry's six major technologies, crystalline silicon (x-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe), thin film silicon (TF-Si), copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), high concentrating photovoltaics (HCPV) and concentrating solar power (CSP).
"We found that solar's short-term pain will enable it to exceed growth expectations over the very long-term," said Ted Sullivan, a senior analyst for Lux Research, and the report's lead author. "The volume of solar installations will grow at a 23% annual rate from 2010 to 2015, but revenue will grow by just 14%, as prices fall due to remaining over-capacity. While current subsidies in China and elsewhere will help soak up some of that capacity, there will be widespread company failures throughout the value chain first."
The report updates earlier market size and demand forecasts, extends Lux Research's outlook through 2015, and adds three new geographies -- Czech Republic, New Jersey, and Ontario -- due to their high levels of subsidies and rapidly developing markets.
Among the key findings are that capacity remains well above demand -- signaling violent changes ahead.
Lux expects the supply and demand curves to move abruptly together over the next few years due to company failures. Demand will also increase in producing regions such as China, prompted by government subsidies and other factors.
Low-cost x-Si technologies will continue to dominate the marketplace, but thin-film and CSP will gain market share.
Lux said that as financing begins to return to solar in 2010, crystalline silicon players will continue to use low price as a weapon against new technologies that don't share its "bankability" or scale. However, new technologies such as CSP, CIGS, and even HCPV technologies are expected to gain at the margins.
The biggest take away from the report is that solar adoption will be a multi-decade story. Lux said that solar will wildly beat its expectations in the long-term. When it comes down to deploying solar the industry will rely on an energy and construction business model rather than a consumer-oriented one. As a result the report said that solar's adoption will rely in large part on replacement cycles for residential and commercial roofs and for natural gas power plants.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
US to Make Public Lands Available for Large Solar Projects
Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) President and CEO Rhone Resch released the following statement on today’s U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) announcement of its rent policy for utility-scale solar power plants on federal lands:
“Recent independent polling shows that three out of four Americans support putting solar power plants on public lands. Yet while oil and gas companies have received more than 74,000 permits to operate on federal lands in the past two decades, utility-scale solar developers have received zero. We applaud Interior Secretary Salazar and BLM Director Abbey for achieving this milestone and taking another step toward the clean energy future that the American public wants.
“Utility-scale solar projects are moving forward with today’s announcement and the BLM’s efforts to fast-track the review of pending applications for solar projects on public lands. These policies, combined with other initiatives like the Treasury Grant Program (where project developers obtain a grant in lieu of a tax credit), have helped the utility-scale solar power project pipeline grow to 22 gigawatts, enough to provide clean power to 4.4 million homes and create tens of thousands of jobs from coast to coast.
“We look forward to continuing to work with the Interior Department and BLM to develop the right policies to rapidly deploy clean, reliable solar energy on public lands in a responsible manner.”
Source: Renewable Energy Sources
German PV Manufacturers Can Expect Difficulties
Munich, June 9, 2010 - Roland Berger Although photovoltaics (PV) is a growing market, competitors from Asia in particular are stepping up the pressure on German manufacturers. Worldwide, the industry will continue to expand by around 35% per annum. Oversupply and improved cost efficiency will nevertheless cause prices to drop by as much as 15% per year.
One consequence of ever fiercer competition is that German companies will offshore production to low-cost regions such as Asia. As a result, German firms that do keep production onshore will face the threefold threat of low-cost competition from Asia, declining sales at home and a dwindling presence in the world's growth markets. These are the findings of a market study entitled "Light and shade – German PV companies in the global competitive arena".
he report concludes:
- Competition heating up for German solar power companies
– few prepared to face difficult market climate
- More production will be off-shored to Asia
- Not every German photovoltaic company will survive
- Success factors: Production volumes that are large enough to facilitate low costs and healthy market access – especially in project business – to fuel high-volume sales.
- Competition heating up for German solar power companies
– few prepared to face difficult market climate
- More production will be off-shored to Asia
- Not every German photovoltaic company will survive
- Success factors: Production volumes that are large enough to facilitate low costs and healthy market access – especially in project business – to fuel high-volume sales.
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