Sunday, August 21, 2011

A Revelation From Fred Claire: How to Negotiate With a Competitor


In closed or limited organizational ecosystems, you have to be able to
negotiate with competitors. Not all of us work in closed systems, but unless
you're the rarer than rare person who has so much power he can force his will on
everyone (say, Saparmurat
Niyazov
or  Lloyd Blankfein) sooner or later, you'll be negotiating
with a competitor. It could be external...a company that's a direct competitor,
or internal, a territorial manager of an adjacent department or a department you
are competing with for resources.


Baseball is an almost-entirely closed system. Whenever you make a deal with
another team, you are pushing hands with an antagonist who, in a zero-sum
system, is seeking the exact same end goals you are: a World Series trophy. So
any asset to your side of the equation is most likely a debit on her side. In a
zero-sum system, it's pretty rare to get to a win-win outcome. (Bill
Bavasi
told me this, btw, is one of the reasons some GMs far prefer free
agent signings -- it doesn't collide with the zero-sum nature of trading in a
closed system.
)


SO HOW DO YOU DO IT?

Well, if it can be done anywhere, it will happen in the most vibrant, flexible,
advanced management arena in the world, Baseball. And the way you do it is to
analyze the situation in agonizing depth, or at least to a level considered
agonizing in the bush league management arenas that are the ones Beyond
Baseball.


I'll give you a great example I read recently in Fred Claire's 2004 book My
30 Years in Dodger Blue
. The situation is this: In 1998, the Bums'
catcher and primo team star, Mike Piazza, and coming off arguably the best-ever
offensive season a catcher had ever had, was to become a free agent. Claire and
the Dodgers fiercely wanted him to stay, but new corporate ownership (Fox) was
focused elsewhere, and enforcing the normal post-takeover budgetary tightness,
while Team Piazza was indicating they were seeking the fattest contract in
Baseball history. Pre-season negotiations had failed to close the deal, so
Piazza entered the season unsigned, an indicator to other teams that he might be
traded (since a team that holds on to a good player who leaves for free agency
& signs w/another team is very unlikely to recover "full" value
for the loss of services). Other General Managers, such as the Florida Marlins' Dave
Dombrowski,
a leading practitioner of negotiating arts, would float offers, in the hopes of
adding immediate wins, or adding wins and signing the star, or alternatively,
flipping him to another team looking for immediate wins in exchange for a
handful of promising cheap youngsters.


So, this excerpt from Claire's book:



In that call, on April 10, our negotiations
with Piazza on hold, Dombrowski had inquired about Mike. His approach was
very direct -- "Fred, would you trade Mike Piazza and a young,
low-salaried pitcher for Charles Johnson, Gary Sheffield and Jim Eisenreich?"


I knew Dombrowski was under orders from
Florida owner Wayne Huizenga to unload payroll after the Marlins had won the
World Series the previous season and yeat had lost money in the process.
Sheffield was at the top of the Marlin salary list in that he had just signed
a six-year deal that paid him $61 million from 1998 through 2003.


Dombrowski figured if he could trade
Sheffield for Piazza, the Marlins would be free of the bulk of their future
payroll obligations. Furthermore, Dombrowski would be in a position to
acquire young players for Piazza in that Mike was in the last year of his
contract.


I went to Graziano
[Claire's boss] and told him {snip} I wanted to reply
to Dombrowski that we weren't interested in discussing Piazza because we
wanted to sign Mike, but we were interested in Sheffield.


My reasoning: I felt that as long as
Sheffield remained the focus of trade discussions, Charles Johnson would
remain a Marlin. The two made an attractive trade package, the high-priced
slugger paired with the lower-priced but highly-valuable catcher. If Fox
decided Piazza had to go, Johnson would be just the replacement we needed.

{snip}
 



A subtle, masterful playing of the chess board that can only happen because
Claire's workgroup has come to a blisteringly thorough understanding of the
other side of the negotiating table. The Dodgers still want to sign Piazza, but
they may not be able to, for whatever financial or corporate-political or
personal reasons. The Dodgers would like to keep the Marlins' younger, cheaper catcher
(and not as fine a player, but already Johnson was an All-Star and had won a
Gold Glove) in the trading pool so the Dodgers might snare him as a contingency
if Piazza left. But Johnson was a most-attractive player beyond his on the field
value; he was a logical pairing with Gary Sheffield, the personally difficult
but extremely productive and extremely expensive slugger in a trade.


So to keep Johnson from leaving the Marlins, Claire hoped to pin
the Marlins by expressing more interest in Sheffield than the Dodgers really
had. Getting Sheffield's and Johnson's prowess and payroll obligations wouldn't
necessarily be a tragedy, but why not try to get the sweeter benefit/cost
pairing alone (in Johnson)?


ADVANCED NEGOTIATION 400, IN, AND BEYOND BASEBALL

To attempt this required nothing less than the striving for total data
omniscience.


Claire and his group needed to:



  • examine the dollar and playing values,

  • learn and interpret the other side of the table's motivations and short-
    and long-term plans,

  • interpret the Marlins' valuation systems and measuring factors as well as
    their own, and

  • come up with either a win-win match-up, or, barring that,

  • a ploy that would freeze the Marlins pursuit of other deals as long as
    possible .


And, oh yeah, without totally burning the other side of a table, because
(especially) in a closed system, you don't want to set off a neutron bomb (a
deal so bitter that it guarantees one side will never again do business with the
other).


In your own management, consider how complex the preparation for this
negotiation was. Are you good enough for Baseball (that is, do you prepare this
way)? You can in most cases, of course. It requires a level of research most
managers Beyond Baseball are unwilling to t`ke on.


Maybe you can't be as skilled as Fred Claire, but I promise you it's worth
trying.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

PV Installations Expected to Grow 15% in 2011 to 21 GW

More than 21 GW of new PV capacity is predicted to be installed this year - up from around 18 GW in 2010, according to IMS Research's latest report on PV demand.

The firm says it has raised its outlook for this year based on new information regarding supply chain pricing which will help stimulate demand in major markets. However, it also cut its long-term forecast slightly due to decreasing incentives in several markets.

IMS Research's latest analysis of global PV demand revealed that installations will grow just 15% this year and that prices are falling rapidly enough to create another surge in demand in markets such as Germany.

In addition, now that the decree in Italy on incentives has finally been implemented, life will return to the paralyzed market, which was simply waiting and watching in the first quarter of this year (Q1'11), IMS Research says. Installations were 37% down in the quarter, with approximately 3.5 GW of new capacity. This number is forecast to increase steadily each quarter throughout the year, culminating in a very large fourth quarter.

One significant outcome from the latest PV demand database is that European installations will fall this year and next year.

"Europe's share of the PV market will fall considerably in the next three to five years; in fact, we predict European installations will decline in both 2011 and 2012 and will not return to the 2010 level for quite some time," says Ash Sharma, PV research director.

"Despite many governments' indicating that renewable energy will become a larger part of their energy policies in the wake of the Fukushima crisis, it is less clear whether this talk will translate to real support for the PV industry," Sharma adds. "The governments associated with most major markets have either cut incentives recently, or indicated that they will do so soon.

"We predict demand from Germany and Italy alone to fall by 3 GW in 2012, and Europe's share of global demand to fall from 80 percent in 2010 to 56 percent in 2012," he adds.

IMS Research also predicts a single-digit decline for PV installations in 2012 due to both the falls forecast in Europe and uncertainty in the U.S. and Asia. Although both of these markets are growing well this year and are predicted to exceed 5 GW combined, it is not yet clear if growth can be sustained in 2012 and if government policy will fully support PV.

Although the Chinese government announced it was to double its target for PV capacity, IMS Research believes that market growth will be limited to government-controlled projects and that a feed-in tariff will not be introduced for several years, as system prices are considered too high.

"Yet again, the outcome of the PV industry's development in 2012 will be entirely dependent on reducing costs rapidly enough in order to keep prices in line with incentives in major markets," says Sharma. "Although margins are now being squeezed and prices are beginning to fall, further reductions are needed in 2012, and the key now lies in polysilicon and wafer supply to do this."

source:  IMS Research

Germany Sets Goal of 35% Renewable Energy by 2020

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, along with cabinet members, has announced an accelerated energy plan for the country. Under the plan, all nuclear power stations in Germany will be shut down by 2022, as the country "aims to enter the age of renewables as quickly as possible."

"The resolution is absolutely clear," the announcement states. "There is no loophole that would allow power stations to operate beyond this cut-off date in order to deliver agreed-upon electricity quotas."

As the nuclear facilities are decommissioned, Germany will increase its percentage of energy generated from solar energy and other renewable energy sources. The target is to raise the percentage from 17% today to 35% in 2020. For this to be achieved, the new energies must be reliable and marketable, the government adds.

"We need an entirely new architecture for our energy system and energy supply for the electricity of the future," Merkel stated.


Source:  Solar Industry

US, UK to cut national power supplies in preparation for massive solar storms

Periodic solar events involving solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CME), and geomagnetic storms, are capable of disrupting and damaging transformers, radio equipment, and even entire power grids, depending on their strength. In the event of a massive Category 5 solar storm, which is the most severe type and the type experts say may hit the earth very soon, electrical and radio systems could be completely destroyed. This has prompted officials from both the United Kingdom and United States to announce plans of controlledpower"blackouts" to prevent national electricity grids from massive destruction.

The BritishIndependentreports that scientists from the UK Met Office, aweatherand climate change organization, are taking thethreatso seriously that they are constructing a second space weather prediction center to help "coordinate a global response" to the threat. And US officials are onboard with the initiative as well, as they agree that action must be taken to prevent power systems from extensive damage, which in effect could bring down entire nations.

"It points to a potential scenario where large parts of either North America or northern Europe may be without power from between days or weeks, to perhaps months and, in extreme cases, there are estimates that it could last years," said Dr. Thomas Bogdan, director of the US Space Weather Prediction Center, to theIndependent.

The M-2 class (medium size) CME that took place on June 7, for instance, could have had a much more devastating impact on theearthhad it been pointed directly at it -- and that was only a moderate solar storm. With the recent uptick in this and other solar activity through the month of May, which represents the beginnings of a new period of "solar maximum" activity following a decades-long "solar minimum" period, experts fear larger, more damaging solar events could be on the way



Source:  Natural News

Learn more about CME's and GPS failures, cell phone disruptions, massive grid failure and the 22 year solar cycle on our website   





Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Saudi Arabia to Become the Saudi Arabia of Solar Electricity

A couple days ago Bloomberg reported the following: "Saudi Arabia plans to generate solar electricity equaling the amount of its energy from crude exports, Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said." Wait, what?

That sounds like a ridiculous quantity of solar electricity. The article doesn't say quantitatively how much energy that is, so I did a quick check. Saudi Arabia exportsabout 2.7 billion barrels of oil per year, each containing the equivalent of 1,700 Kilowatt hours of electricity for a total of 4.59 × 1012 kWh per year, or the equal of about one quarter or the world's annual electricity demand.

TATA and Dyesol Produced World's Largest Dye-sensitized PV Module

An important breakthrough has been achieved at TATA Steel’s Shotton site in North Wales, where a development partnership between TATA Steel and Dyesol has produced the world’s largest dye sensitised photovoltaic module.

The module is over 3 metres in length and approximately 1 square meter in area and represents an important step in the development of large-scale micro energy generation capability within the infrastructure of buildings.

Creation of the module has shown the potential, using continuous printing and coating processes, for scaling up the production of steel strips onto which a dye sensitized photovoltaic coating has been printed. Produced as a single length of coated steel rather than separate cells connected together, the breakthrough brings closer to commercial realization the two companies’ ambitions to develop a manufacturing process that can produce long roofing panels with an integrated dye sensitized photovoltaic function.

Mr Paul Bates operations manager of the TATA Steel Colors PV Accelerator commented that “The TATA Steel and Dyesol team has worked hard to translate laboratory concepts to pilot-line scale, and has successfully produced hundreds of metres of printed steel and polymer film that go into our demonstration product.”

Dr Mikael Khan lead scientist of Dyesol UK Ltd commented that “This module demonstrates the feasibility of a continuously printed dye sensitized product. The materials and processes we have created move the process from the production of single cells into the continuous production, from rolls, of lengths of finished modules that would be ideal for roofing applications.”

Dye sensitized photovoltaic modules have unique performance characteristics, being particularly tolerant of lower light levels and temperature variations, providing benefits in real-world conditions. Developing the ability to print the PV coating directly onto steel roof cladding would enable the modules to be produced in large volumes cost effectively and integrated into building envelopes.


Q-Cells breaks record for Polycrystalline Efficiency

Germany-based Q-Cells SE has developed a solar cell with an efficiency of 19.5%.According to the company, this efficiency, which was confirmed by the independent calibration laboratory of Fraunhofer ISE, represents a new record for polycrystalline cells.

The solar cell is based on the new Q.ANTUM concept developed by Q-Cells in recent years. Peter Waver, senior vice president of technology at Q-Cells, says the company will continue optimizing the cell in order to reach efficiencies above 20%.

At Q-Cells' in-house research center in Thalheim, Germany, a polycrystalline 180-µm-thick silicon wafer was metallized and passivated with functional nanolayers on the back side. According to the company, this new type of structure for the back side, consisting of dielectric layers combined with local contacts, improves the solar cell's optical and electrical characteristics and significantly boosts output compared to the previous standard technology, which uses a completely aluminum-metallized back.

Source: Solar Industry