PV Installations Expected to Grow 15% in 2011 to 21 GW

More than 21 GW of new PV capacity is predicted to be installed this year - up from around 18 GW in 2010, according to IMS Research's latest report on PV demand.

The firm says it has raised its outlook for this year based on new information regarding supply chain pricing which will help stimulate demand in major markets. However, it also cut its long-term forecast slightly due to decreasing incentives in several markets.

IMS Research's latest analysis of global PV demand revealed that installations will grow just 15% this year and that prices are falling rapidly enough to create another surge in demand in markets such as Germany.

In addition, now that the decree in Italy on incentives has finally been implemented, life will return to the paralyzed market, which was simply waiting and watching in the first quarter of this year (Q1'11), IMS Research says. Installations were 37% down in the quarter, with approximately 3.5 GW of new capacity. This number is forecast to increase steadily each quarter throughout the year, culminating in a very large fourth quarter.

One significant outcome from the latest PV demand database is that European installations will fall this year and next year.

"Europe's share of the PV market will fall considerably in the next three to five years; in fact, we predict European installations will decline in both 2011 and 2012 and will not return to the 2010 level for quite some time," says Ash Sharma, PV research director.

"Despite many governments' indicating that renewable energy will become a larger part of their energy policies in the wake of the Fukushima crisis, it is less clear whether this talk will translate to real support for the PV industry," Sharma adds. "The governments associated with most major markets have either cut incentives recently, or indicated that they will do so soon.

"We predict demand from Germany and Italy alone to fall by 3 GW in 2012, and Europe's share of global demand to fall from 80 percent in 2010 to 56 percent in 2012," he adds.

IMS Research also predicts a single-digit decline for PV installations in 2012 due to both the falls forecast in Europe and uncertainty in the U.S. and Asia. Although both of these markets are growing well this year and are predicted to exceed 5 GW combined, it is not yet clear if growth can be sustained in 2012 and if government policy will fully support PV.

Although the Chinese government announced it was to double its target for PV capacity, IMS Research believes that market growth will be limited to government-controlled projects and that a feed-in tariff will not be introduced for several years, as system prices are considered too high.

"Yet again, the outcome of the PV industry's development in 2012 will be entirely dependent on reducing costs rapidly enough in order to keep prices in line with incentives in major markets," says Sharma. "Although margins are now being squeezed and prices are beginning to fall, further reductions are needed in 2012, and the key now lies in polysilicon and wafer supply to do this."

source:  IMS Research

Germany Sets Goal of 35% Renewable Energy by 2020

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, along with cabinet members, has announced an accelerated energy plan for the country. Under the plan, all nuclear power stations in Germany will be shut down by 2022, as the country "aims to enter the age of renewables as quickly as possible."

"The resolution is absolutely clear," the announcement states. "There is no loophole that would allow power stations to operate beyond this cut-off date in order to deliver agreed-upon electricity quotas."

As the nuclear facilities are decommissioned, Germany will increase its percentage of energy generated from solar energy and other renewable energy sources. The target is to raise the percentage from 17% today to 35% in 2020. For this to be achieved, the new energies must be reliable and marketable, the government adds.

"We need an entirely new architecture for our energy system and energy supply for the electricity of the future," Merkel stated.


Source:  Solar Industry

US, UK to cut national power supplies in preparation for massive solar storms

Periodic solar events involving solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CME), and geomagnetic storms, are capable of disrupting and damaging transformers, radio equipment, and even entire power grids, depending on their strength. In the event of a massive Category 5 solar storm, which is the most severe type and the type experts say may hit the earth very soon, electrical and radio systems could be completely destroyed. This has prompted officials from both the United Kingdom and United States to announce plans of controlledpower"blackouts" to prevent national electricity grids from massive destruction.

The BritishIndependentreports that scientists from the UK Met Office, aweatherand climate change organization, are taking thethreatso seriously that they are constructing a second space weather prediction center to help "coordinate a global response" to the threat. And US officials are onboard with the initiative as well, as they agree that action must be taken to prevent power systems from extensive damage, which in effect could bring down entire nations.

"It points to a potential scenario where large parts of either North America or northern Europe may be without power from between days or weeks, to perhaps months and, in extreme cases, there are estimates that it could last years," said Dr. Thomas Bogdan, director of the US Space Weather Prediction Center, to theIndependent.

The M-2 class (medium size) CME that took place on June 7, for instance, could have had a much more devastating impact on theearthhad it been pointed directly at it -- and that was only a moderate solar storm. With the recent uptick in this and other solar activity through the month of May, which represents the beginnings of a new period of "solar maximum" activity following a decades-long "solar minimum" period, experts fear larger, more damaging solar events could be on the way


Source:  Natural News

Learn more about CME's and GPS failures, cell phone disruptions, massive grid failure and the 22 year solar cycle on our website   

Saudi Arabia to Become the Saudi Arabia of Solar Electricity

A couple days ago Bloomberg reported the following: "Saudi Arabia plans to generate solar electricity equaling the amount of its energy from crude exports, Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said." Wait, what?

That sounds like a ridiculous quantity of solar electricity. The article doesn't say quantitatively how much energy that is, so I did a quick check. Saudi Arabia exportsabout 2.7 billion barrels of oil per year, each containing the equivalent of 1,700 Kilowatt hours of electricity for a total of 4.59 × 1012 kWh per year, or the equal of about one quarter or the world's annual electricity demand.

Okay, so obviously solar electricity equal to the energy in all of Saudi Arabia's crude exports is far more than the Saudis could ever use, so maybe I'm misunderstanding the Oil Minister's meaning. Except, Bloomberg goes on to report that "Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has the potential by 2020 to produce enough solar power to meet more than four times global demand for electricity, al-Naimi said." Okay, so it appears they really are planning to ramp up huge. World leading huge. Region-or-more powering huge. A development plan this ambitious can only mean that Saudi Arabia intends to become a huge source of exportable electricity. 

Why would the world's largest oil producer wish to so quickly become the world's largest solar electricity exporter? I'm sure the Saudi leaders, looking around their country, had a conversation that started with, "so, apart from our rapidly depleting oil reserves, what natural resource do we have that could be exploited on an equally massive scale?" The Saudis realize the only answer is sunlight.

And knowing better than anyone that easy-to-retrieve oil is getting scarce, they have made the strategic decision to begin replacing it with their only other form of exportable energy, the only other source they can produce in abundance as massive, solar electricity. Saudi is making what in the medium- to long-term is the state-saving, obvious transition to the Next Economy. And they're doing it now while they're awash in enough oil capital to make it happen.

If I'm right about their plan to export ridiculous quantities of solar electricity, one of the next things we should see is investments into transmission capability (there are signs of this already, such as the huge new General Electric (NYSE:GE) power equipment plant, and plans for underwater power cables to Egypt).

Is a quarter of global electricity demand within feasible transmission range of Saudi Arabia? The Saudis would seem to think so. Other things we'll begin to see are contracts with solar providers and rising demand for materials all along solar industry verticals.Solar stock short sellers -- watch your backs.

Source:  AltEnergyStocks.com via Renewable Energy World

View - Interesting idea ... but why would we want to stay dependent on the Middle East for Energy - when the sun shines everywhere.   There is already the DESERTEC initiative to build large solar farms in Northern Africa and connect it to the EU grid in Spain ... but with the UK, France and USA deciding to take over the oil resources from Libya in the name of democracy and spreading unrest in Algeria and Morocco ... it will be interesting to see what happens to this project.

Personally, I'm in favor of small to medium sized solar projects located close to where the electricity is used ... in other words the German / Italian model of diversified energy production.   What is your opinion?

TATA and Dyesol Produced World's Largest Dye-sensitized PV Module

An important breakthrough has been achieved at TATA Steel’s Shotton site in North Wales, where a development partnership between TATA Steel and Dyesol has produced the world’s largest dye sensitised photovoltaic module.

The module is over 3 metres in length and approximately 1 square meter in area and represents an important step in the development of large-scale micro energy generation capability within the infrastructure of buildings.

Creation of the module has shown the potential, using continuous printing and coating processes, for scaling up the production of steel strips onto which a dye sensitized photovoltaic coating has been printed. Produced as a single length of coated steel rather than separate cells connected together, the breakthrough brings closer to commercial realization the two companies’ ambitions to develop a manufacturing process that can produce long roofing panels with an integrated dye sensitized photovoltaic function.

Mr Paul Bates operations manager of the TATA Steel Colors PV Accelerator commented that “The TATA Steel and Dyesol team has worked hard to translate laboratory concepts to pilot-line scale, and has successfully produced hundreds of metres of printed steel and polymer film that go into our demonstration product.”

Dr Mikael Khan lead scientist of Dyesol UK Ltd commented that “This module demonstrates the feasibility of a continuously printed dye sensitized product. The materials and processes we have created move the process from the production of single cells into the continuous production, from rolls, of lengths of finished modules that would be ideal for roofing applications.”

Dye sensitized photovoltaic modules have unique performance characteristics, being particularly tolerant of lower light levels and temperature variations, providing benefits in real-world conditions. Developing the ability to print the PV coating directly onto steel roof cladding would enable the modules to be produced in large volumes cost effectively and integrated into building envelopes.

Q-Cells breaks record for Polycrystalline Efficiency

Germany-based Q-Cells SE has developed a solar cell with an efficiency of 19.5%.According to the company, this efficiency, which was confirmed by the independent calibration laboratory of Fraunhofer ISE, represents a new record for polycrystalline cells.

The solar cell is based on the new Q.ANTUM concept developed by Q-Cells in recent years. Peter Waver, senior vice president of technology at Q-Cells, says the company will continue optimizing the cell in order to reach efficiencies above 20%.

At Q-Cells' in-house research center in Thalheim, Germany, a polycrystalline 180-µm-thick silicon wafer was metallized and passivated with functional nanolayers on the back side. According to the company, this new type of structure for the back side, consisting of dielectric layers combined with local contacts, improves the solar cell's optical and electrical characteristics and significantly boosts output compared to the previous standard technology, which uses a completely aluminum-metallized back.

Source: Solar Industry

Is the Solar Installation Industry Ripe for Consolidation?

Solar installation is a low margin business with low barriers to entry, but consolidation may bring competitive advantages in some sectors of the market.

At the small, residential scale, there are practically no barriers to entry.  There is a wealth of training material available, both in person and online, which enables even a one-man contractor to become certified to install solar.  

At the larger, commercial scale, the main barrier to entry is capital, not expertise.  According to Coen, there is a national trend towards the financiers owning the solar project, and consultants can manage the project for them and bring together all the necessary expertise to develop a project from the initial site assessment to final commissioning. 

  

The installer model looks a lot like a traditional contractor model.  Gross margins are thin, from 15 to 30%, with residential systems typically receiving larger margins than commercial.  In the current climate, both see space for a wide range of business models driven by the immaturity of the industry along with a wide diversity and frequent complexity of local codes and utility incentive programs that contractors must negotiate. 

There are also advantages to scale.  Large solar developers have the buying power to negotiate better prices on solar panels, a significant advantage in a thin-margin business.  

Public Solar Installers

Based on the above discussion, I'd guess the sweet spot for a publicly traded solar developer/installer would be a large scale, regional company, focused on a promising region and possibly residential solar installations (because of the higher margins). 

Promising markets include California, the Northeast, and Hawaii.  The former two have strong incentives, while Hawaii's expensive electricity means that they are already close to grid parity.

Source:   AltEnergystocks.com via Renewable EnergyWorld

How I See it in Europe:    While it might make sense for installers to acquire other installers in the USA ... in Europe we are seeing interest by major panel makers to invest in commercial solar developers - in order to acquire pipelines of projects and lock in customers for their panels.   The additional capital and supplier support give the experienced installer a big advantage in attracting additional investor and bank capital for their projects ... which in turn leads to more installations -- a win, win, win scenario.   It's still early days - but there some exploratory discussions we are aware of (not directly by the panel manufacturers ... but through subsidiary distributors and "friends of the manufacturers".    

I think it is a smart move ... with inventory levels building ... the bottleneck in the market is financing new construction ... by strengthening targeted installers ... this moves through the bottleneck and leads to more installations and reductions in inventory for the panel manufacturers.    The key is finding the right installer for your panels.   In our case - we're focused on innovative roofing projects in Italy (i.e., replacing asbestos roofs with brand new roofs composed of amorphous silicon panels ... the result is a long lasting brand new roof -- that qualifies for high feed in tariffs under the newly passed 4th Conto Energia in Italy.

Oregon Town Gets a Lot of Solar for a Little Money

The upfront cost has always been the biggest barrier to solar PV adoption, and one Oregon town has found an innovative way to help its citizens buy down that cost.

The city borrowed from the sewer account to offer no-interest loans of $9,000 each. The repayment schedule, over four years, is tied to residents' tax returns each spring, when they receive refunds of state and federal renewable energy tax credits.

All told, Lehman estimates the program will cost the city only $10,000 in lost interest over four years.

While the loan terms are short (4 years), the repayment plan is tied to the state and federal tax credit schedule, essentially allowing interested home and business owners the chance to finance solar directly with those credits, rather than having to put their own money up front.

The loan program spurred over 50 solar PV installations in 2010, in a town of just 16,500 residents.  The residents not only received discount financing, but the city helped aggregate the purchase of the solar panels to get participants a "group buy" discount.  Assuming a system size of 3 kilowatts and installed cost of $6.00 per Watt, the city's $10,000 investment got their residents approximately $1 million worth of new solar power.

The increase in solar installation activity had an effect even for those who didn't use the town's financing option:

Ken Abbott, a retired postal employee, didn't use the loan program but took advantage of the lower installation prices that resulted from the large number of buyers.

Pendelton's lesson to cities is that you don't need a lot of money to make it a lot easier to go solar.

This post originally appeared on Energy Self-Reliant States, a resource of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance's New Rules Project.

View:   It can pay to work with your local community to make solar a reality for lots of people

Conergy Introduces Residential PV Inverter Unit With Energy Storage Capabilities

Everybody is used to storing food in their refrigerator  ... now you can store your solar energy too.


Germany-based Conergy says it has developed a new solar storage solution incorporating an integrated string inverter and an intelligent energy-management system based on modern lithium-ion technology.

With its nominal power of 5.5 kW and a storage capacity of up to 13.2 kWh, the hybrid inverter is designed for four-person households. The refrigerator-sized device weighs 220 kgs.

"In the future, customers will be able to store their sunshine during the day and then use it in the evening or at night, even if the sun went down hours ago," explains Eike Fruhbrodt, product manager at Conergy.   


Source:  Conergy

PV Inverter Shipments Decline 39% As Product Inventory Builds

Global PV inverter shipments declined to 4 GW in the first quarter of this year (Q1'11) - 39% lower than the previous quarter, but 31% higher than in Q1'10, according to IMS Research's latest quarterly report on the market.

Rising channel inventory in markets such as Germany, Italy and France contributed to the disappointing first-quarter results. The report is based on actual sales and shipment data from 35 of the largest PV inverter suppliers, including the largest Chinese vendors. It revealed that although the first quarter of the year is traditionally weak for the PV inverter industry, the 39% sequential drop in Q1'11 shipments was much larger than the 17% drop seen a year earlier.

"Q1'11 was a difficult quarter for inverter suppliers," says Ash Sharma, PV research Director at IMS Research. "Inventory began to build in late 2010, and this continued with order cancellations common for suppliers during the quarter. Q1'11 is now the second quarter in succession where shipments have fallen."

Following a trend seen in late 2010, Germany continued to become less important to the PV inverter industry in Q1'11, according to IMS Research. Since the company began tracking quarterly shipments, Q1'11 was the first quarter when Italy had a larger market than Germany, with over 1.2 GW shipped.

Inventory may be a likely destination for the inverters, given that uncertainty caused by a review of the Italian feed-in tariff (FIT) in Q1'11 halted project financing and stalled the market.

"Even with uncertainty during the quarter, inverter demand stayed buoyant, with installations still being completed from the previous Conto Energia FIT scheme, which expired at the end of 2010," Sharma says.

Germany's falling share of the inverter market was also apparent in the results of its supplier base, with many German suppliers losing share of the global market, the report adds. Market leader SMA Solar Technology reported quarterly results that were down on the same period in 2010. U.S.-based suppliers, such as Satcon and Advanced Energy, continued to perform strongly, because they were less exposed to the stalling European markets.

IMS Research predicts only slow growth in demand for inverters in Q2'11, because several gigawatts of inventory is being held throughout the supply chain. Weak demand in Europe is not clearing the inventory quickly enough for strong growth to return, the company says.



Source:  Solar Industry

Solar Modules Escape Toxic-Substance Ban In EU Decision

Good news for First Solar - Ministers from the European Union (EU) have voted to exempt PV modules from European law that bans certain toxic substances in electrical goods, Reuters reports.

The toxic-substances ban applies to six specified hazardous substances, including the cadmium used in thin-film modules manufactured by First Solar and other companies.

"In order to attain the EU's ambitious targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, photovoltaic panels to produce energy from solar light do not have to comply with the restriction," the ministers stated.


Source:  Reuters